Implications of Cardiopulmonary Risk for the Management of COPD: A Narrative Review.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitutes a major global health burden and is the third leading cause of death worldwide. A high proportion of patients with COPD have cardiovascular disease, but there is also evidence that COPD is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiovascular disease. Patients with COPD frequently die of respiratory and cardiovascular causes, yet the identification and management of cardiopulmonary risk remain suboptimal owing to limited awareness and clinical intervention. Acute exacerbations punctuate the progression of COPD in many patients, reducing lung function and increasing the risk of subsequent exacerbations and cardiovascular events that may lead to early death. This narrative review defines and summarises the principles of COPD-associated cardiopulmonary risk, and examines respiratory interventions currently available to modify this risk, as well as providing expert opinion on future approaches to addressing cardiopulmonary risk.

The association of blood eosinophil counts and FEV1 decline: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated lung function decline is characteristic of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the association between blood eosinophil counts and lung function decline, accounting for current smoking status, in young individuals without prevalent lung disease is not fully understood. METHODS: This is a cohort study of 629 784 Korean adults without COPD or a history of asthma at baseline who participated in health screening examinations including spirometry and differential white blood cell counts. We used linear mixed effects model to estimate the annual change in FEV1 (mL) by baseline blood eosinophil count, adjusting for covariates including smoking status. We also performed a stratified analysis by baseline and time-varying smoking status. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 6.5 years (maximum of 17.8 years), the annual change in FEV1 (95% confidence interval [CI]) in participants with eosinophil counts <100, 100-199, 200-299, 300-499, and ≥500 cells/µL in the fully adjusted model were -23.3 (-23.9, -22.7), -24.3 (-24.9, -23.7), -24.8 (-25.5, -24.2), -25.5 (-26.2, -24.8), and -26.8 (-27.7, -25.9) mL, respectively. When stratified by smoking status, participants with higher eosinophil count had a faster decline in FEV1 than those with lower eosinophil count in both never- and ever-smokers, which persisted when time-varying smoking status was used. CONCLUSIONS: Blood eosinophil counts were associated with a faster lung function decline among healthy individuals without lung disease, independent of smoking status. The findings suggest that blood eosinophil counts contribute to the risk of faster lung function decline, particularly among younger adults without a history of lung disease.

Exhaled nitric oxide levels in COPD patients who use electronic cigarettes.

Emerging data from clinical studies have shown pro-inflammatory effects associated with e-cigarette use. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is a biomarker of pulmonary type 2 (T2) inflammation. The effect of chronic e-cigarette use on FeNO is unclear. The aim of this study was to compare FeNO levels in COPD ex-smokers who use e-cigarettes (COPDE + e-cig) to COPDE ex-smokers (COPDE) and COPD current smokers (COPDS). FeNO levels were significantly higher in COPDE + e-cig (median 16.2 ppb) and COPDE (median 18.0 ppb) compared to COPDS (median 7.6 ppb) (p = 0.0003 and p < 0.0001 respectively). There was no difference in FeNO levels between COPDE + e-cig compared to COPDE (p > 0.9). The importance of our results is that electronic cigarette use does not alter the interpretation of FeNO results, and so does not interfere with the use of FeNO as a practical biomarker of T2 inflammation, unlike current cigarette smoking in COPD. Whilst the effect of electronic cigarette use on FeNO levels is not the same as cigarette smoke, this cannot be taken as evidence that electronic cigarettes are harmless. These differential pulmonary effects can be attributed to differences in the chemical composition of the two products.

Risk of Pneumonia in Patients with COPD Initiating Fixed Dose Inhaled Corticosteroid (ICS) / Long-Acting Bronchodilator (LABD) Formulations Containing Extrafine Beclometasone Dipropionate versus Patients Initiating LABD Without ICS.

Background: Combined ICS and long-acting bronchodilators (LABD) more effectively reduce COPD exacerbations than LABD therapy alone. Corticosteroid-related adverse effects, including pneumonia, limit ICS use. Previous data suggest this risk is lower for extrafine beclometasone (ef-BDP). We compared pneumonia risk among new users of fixed dose ICS/LABD formulations containing ef-BDP, versus patients initiating LABD without any ICS. Methods: A propensity-matched historical cohort study design used data from OPCRD. COPD patients with ≥1 year of continuous data who initiated LABD or ICS/LABD formulations containing ef-BDP were matched. Primary outcome was time to pneumonia event, as treated, using either sensitive (physician diagnosed) or specific (physician diagnosed and x-ray or hospital admission confirmed) definitions, with non-inferiority boundary of 15%. Results: 23,898 COPD patients were matched, who were 68±11 years, 54.3% male and 56% current-smokers, while 43% were former-smokers. Initiation of ef-BDP/LABD was not associated with an increased risk of pneumonia versus LABD, for either a sensitive 0.89 (0.78-1.02), P = 0.08 or a specific 0.91 (0.78-1.05), P = 0.18 definition of pneumonia. The probability of remaining pneumonia free 1-year after ef-BDP/LABD was 98.4%, which was comparable to LABD at 97.7%, and was sustained up to 6 years of observation; non-inferiority criterion was met for both definitions. Initiation of ef-BDP/LABD was also associated with a reduced risk of developing LRTIs in the propensity matched cohort. Conclusion: Risk of pneumonia when using ICS for the management of COPD reported in several randomised controlled trials may not be relevant with ef-BDP in a diverse real-world clinical population.

Structural Predictors of Lung Function Decline in Young Smokers with Normal Spirometry.

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to tobacco smoking commonly presents when extensive lung damage has occurred. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesised that structural change would be detected early in the natural history of COPD and would relate to loss of lung function with time. METHODS: We recruited 431 current smokers (median age 39 years, 16 pack-years smoked) and recorded symptoms by the COPD Assessment Test (CAT), spirometry and quantitative thoracic CT (QCT) scans at study entry. These scans results were compared to 67 never smoking controls. 368 participants were followed every six months with measurement of post-bronchodilator spirometry for a median of 32 months. The rate of FEV1 decline, adjusted for current smoking status, age and sex was related to the initial QCT appearances and symptoms, measured with the CAT. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were no material differences in demography or subjective CT appearances between the young smokers and controls, but 55.7% of the former had a CAT score above 10 and 24.2% reported chronic bronchitis. QCT assessments of Disease Probability-defined functional small airways disease, ground glass opacification, bronchovascular prominence and small blood vessel to total pulmonary vessel volume ratio were increased compared to controls and were all associated with a faster FEV1 decline as was a higher CAT score. CONCLUSIONS: Radiologic abnormalities on CT are already established in young smokers with normal lung function and is associated with FEV1 loss independently of the impact of symptoms. Structural abnormalities are present early in the natural history of COPD and are markers of disease progression. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Current smoking reduces small airway eosinophil counts in COPD.

Current smoking reduces small airway intraepithelial eosinophil counts in COPD patients and controls. This provides evidence of an attenuation of type-2 related inflammation in the small airways imposed by current smoking, which may affect ICS response. https://bit.ly/49YSKwG.

A Randomized Phase I Study of the Anti-Interleukin-33 Antibody Tozorakimab in Healthy Adults and Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Tozorakimab is a human monoclonal antibody that neutralizes interleukin (IL)-33. IL-33 is a broad-acting epithelial "alarmin" cytokine upregulated in lung tissue of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This first-in-human, phase I, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study (NCT03096795) evaluated the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PKs), immunogenicity, target engagement, and pharmacodynamics (PDs) of tozorakimab. This was a 3-part study. In part 1, 56 healthy participants with a history of mild atopy received single escalating doses of either intravenous or subcutaneous tozorakimab or placebo. In part 2, 24 patients with mild COPD received multiple ascending doses of subcutaneous tozorakimab or placebo. In part 3, 8 healthy Japanese participants received a single intravenous dose of tozorakimab or placebo. The safety data collected included treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), vital signs, and clinical laboratory parameters. Biological samples for PKs, immunogenicity, target engagement, and PD biomarker analyses were collected. No meaningful differences in the frequencies of TEAEs were observed between the tozorakimab and placebo arms. Three tozorakimab-treated participants with COPD experienced treatment-emergent serious adverse events. Subcutaneous or intravenous tozorakimab demonstrated linear, time-independent PKs with a mean half-life of 11.7-17.3 days. Treatment-emergent anti-drug antibody frequency was low. Engagement of tozorakimab with endogenous IL-33 in serum and nasal airways was demonstrated. Tozorakimab significantly reduced serum IL-5 and IL-13 levels in patients with COPD compared with placebo. Overall, tozorakimab was well tolerated, with a linear, time-independent serum PK profile. Additionally, biomarker studies demonstrated proof of mechanism. Overall, these data support the further clinical development of tozorakimab in COPD and other inflammatory diseases.

An epithelial gene signature of trans-IL-6 signaling defines a subgroup of type 2-low asthma.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is stratified into type 2-high and type 2-low inflammatory phenotypes. Limited success has been achieved in developing drugs that target type 2-low inflammation. Previous studies have linked IL-6 signaling to severe asthma. IL-6 cooperates with soluble-IL-6Rα to activate cell signaling in airway epithelium. OBJECTIVE: We sought to study the role of sIL-6Rα amplified IL-6 signaling in airway epithelium and to develop an IL-6+ sIL-6Rα gene signature that may be used to select asthma patients who potentially respond to anti-IL-6 therapy. METHODS: Human airway epithelial cells were stimulated with combinations of IL-6, sIL-6Rα, and inhibitors, sgp130 (Olamkicept), and anti-IL-6R (Tocilizumab), to assess effects on pathway activation, epithelial barrier integrity, and gene expression. A gene signature was generated to identify IL-6 high patients using bronchial biopsies and nasal brushes. RESULTS: Soluble-IL-6Rα amplified the activation of the IL-6 pathway, shown by the increase of STAT3 phosphorylation and stronger gene induction in airway epithelial cells compared to IL-6 alone. Olamkicept and Tocilizumab inhibited the effect of IL-6 + sIL-6Rα on gene expression. We developed an IL-6 + sIL-6Rα gene signature and observed enrichment of this signature in bronchial biopsies but not nasal brushes from asthma patients compared to healthy controls. An IL-6 + sIL-6Rα gene signature score was associated with lower levels of sputum eosinophils in asthma. CONCLUSION: sIL-6Rα amplifies IL-6 signaling in bronchial epithelial cells. Higher local airway IL-6 + sIL-6Rα signaling is observed in asthma patients with low sputum eosinophils.

Airway and Systemic Immune Responses Following the Third COVID-19 Vaccination in COPD Patients.

Introduction: Booster vaccinations are required to maintain protection against COVID-19. COPD patients are at higher risk of developing severe illness following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Previous cross-sectional analysis after the second COVID-19 booster showed similar immune responses in COPD patients and controls, but pre-vaccination samples were not available. This longitudinal study evaluated systemic and airway immune responses in COPD patients using samples obtained pre- and post-third COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: Twelve COPD patients were recruited, with plasma, nasal and sputum (n = 10) samples collected pre-vaccination and 4- and 14-weeks post vaccination. Samples were analyzed for anti-spike IgA and IgG and cellular immunity. The ability of plasma and nasal samples to block ACE2-spike protein interaction was assessed for Wild type, Delta, and Omicron spike variants. Results: Vaccinations increased anti-spike IgG in plasma (p < 0.001), nasal (IgG p < 0.001) and sputum (p = 0.002) samples, IgA in plasma (p < 0.001) and blood cellular immunity (p = 0.001). Plasma and nasal anti-spike IgA levels correlated (rho: 0.6, p = 0.02), with similar results for IgG (rho: 0.79, p = 0.003). Post-vaccination nasal (p = 0.002) and plasma (p < 0.001) samples were less effective at blocking Omicron spike binding to ACE2 compared to the Wild type spike variant. Discussion: Airway and systemic immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 increased in COPD patients following a third COVID-19 vaccination. Nasal and systemic responses in COPD patients were less effective against Omicron variant compared to previous variants.

Investigation of the Methodology of Specific Airway Resistance Measurements in COPD.

Introduction: Specific resistance (SRaw) measurements in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients may be performed by panting or tidal breathing. The aim of this study was to compare how breathing frequency affected SRaw in COPD and compare different tangent plotting methods. Methods: Fifteen COPD patients participated. Three protocols were performed: tidal 1 - spontaneous tidal breathing; tidal 2 - tidal breathing with a flow of ±1 L/sec; panting - 60 breaths per min. Effective (SReff), total (SRtot), ±0.5 L/s (SR0.5), and mid (SRmid) specific resistance were assessed. Results: The tidal breathing protocols provided similar results. Panting resulted in higher SReff (p = 0.0002) and SRtot (p < 0.0001) versus tidal breathing, but not SR0.5 or SRmid. Breathing frequency did not affect intra-test variance. SReff and SRtot measurements were similar, and were higher than SR0.5, during tidal breathing (p = 0.0014 and p < 0.0001 respectively) and panting (p = 0.0179 and p < 0.0001 respectively). SRtot was higher than SRmid during tidal breathing (p < 0.0001) and panting (p < 0.0001). Intra-test variance of SReff and SRtot were similar and showed the lowest percent coefficient of variation during both tidal breathing and panting. Conclusion: Panting and tidal breathing manoeuvres are not interchangeable in COPD patients. Panting widens the clubbing in the SRaw loop. SR0.5 and SRmid may underestimate abnormal physiology in COPD.

Exhaled nitric oxide, eosinophils and current smoking in COPD patients.

High FENO can occur despite low blood eosinophil counts in ex-smokers, while a minority of current smokers have elevated FENO that is not related to eosinophil counts. FENO levels may be related to noneosinophilic mechanisms in a subgroup of COPD. https://bit.ly/3PSWvM2.

What role will ensifentrine play in the future treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients? Implications from recent clinical trials.

Data from the phase III ENHANCE clinical trials provide compelling evidence that ensifentrine, an inhaled 'bifunctional' dual phosphodiesterase 3/4 inhibitor, can provide additional benefit to existing treatments in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and represents a 'first-in-class' drug having bifunctional bronchodilator and anti-inflammatory activity in a single molecule. Ensifentrine, generally well tolerated, can provide additional bronchodilation when added to muscarinic receptor antagonists or ß2-agonists and reduce the exacerbation risk. This information allows us to consider better the possible inclusion of ensifentrine in the future treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, there is less information on whether it provides additional benefit when added to inhaled corticosteroid or 'triple therapy' and, therefore, when this drug is best utilized in clinical practice.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the name for a group of lung conditions that cause breathing difficulties/airflow limitations. The airflow limitation is not completely reversible and is associated with a state of chronic inflammation of lung tissue. Treatment of the disease is still heavily dependent on the use of medications called bronchodilators and corticosteroids. However, corticosteroids have little-to-no impact on the underlying inflammation in most COPD patients. Therefore, innovative anti-inflammatory approaches are required. In this context, single molecules that are capable of simultaneously inducing bronchodilation, relaxing the muscles in the lungs and widening the airways (bronchi), and anti-inflammatory activity are a highly intriguing possibility for treating COPD. One approach is to develop drugs that can simultaneously inhibit enzymes called phosphodiesterase (PDE)3 and PDE4. Enzymes are proteins that help speed up metabolism, or the chemical reactions in our bodies. PDE4 inhibitors are intracellular enzymes (work inside the cell) expressed in most inflammatory cells, even in neutrophils (a type of white blood cells), which are involved in the pathogenesis of COPD, where an infection turns into a disease. However, its inhibition does not produce severe bronchodilator effects, which is instead obtained by inhibiting PDE3, the PDE isoenzyme (a different form of the same enzyme) that is predominantly expressed in airway smooth muscle cells. A treatment called ensifentrine is a dual PDE3/4 inhibitor (inhibits both PDE3 and PDE4). Two recent phase III studies (ENHANCE-1 and ENHANCE-2) have shown that it induces significant bronchodilation and reduces the risk of COPD worsening, exerting an anti-inflammatory effect. Data from the ENHANCE studies also showed the benefit of adding ensifentrine to treatment with bronchodilators. Certainly, the drug represents a useful therapeutic option, but further clinical studies are needed to be able to correctly position ensifentrine in the context of regular COPD treatment.

A randomised phase 2a study to investigate the effects of blocking interleukin-33 with tozorakimab in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: ACCORD-2.

Background: Increased serum interleukin (IL)-33 predicts poor outcomes in patients hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We examined the efficacy and safety of tozorakimab, a monoclonal antibody that neutralises IL-33, in improving outcomes in ACCORD-2 (EudraCT: 2020-001736-95). Methods: ACCORD-2 was an open-label, phase 2a study in adults hospitalised with COVID-19. Patients were randomised 1:1 to tozorakimab 300 mg plus standard of care (SoC) or SoC alone. The primary end-point was time to clinical response (sustained clinical improvement of ≥2 points on the World Health Organization ordinal scale, discharge from hospital or fit for discharge) by day 29. Other end-points included death or respiratory failure, mortality and intensive care unit admission by day 29, and safety. Serum IL-33/soluble stimulated-2 (sST2) complex levels were measured by high-sensitivity immunoassay. Results: Efficacy analyses included 97 patients (tozorakimab+SoC, n=53; SoC, n=44). Median time to clinical response did not differ between the tozorakimab and SoC arms (8.0 and 9.5 days, respectively; HR 0.96, 80% CI 0.70-1.31; one-sided p=0.33). Tozorakimab was well tolerated and the OR for risk of death or respiratory failure with treatment versus SoC was 0.55 (80% CI 0.27-1.12; p=0.26), while the OR was 0.31 (80% CI 0.09-1.06) in patents with high baseline serum IL-33/sST2 complex levels. Conclusions: Overall, ACCORD-2 results suggest that tozorakimab could be a novel therapy for patients hospitalised with COVID-19, warranting further investigation in confirmatory phase 3 studies.

How inhaled corticosteroids target inflammation in COPD.

Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are the most commonly used anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of COPD. COPD has been previously described as a "corticosteroid-resistant" condition, but current clinical trial evidence shows that selected COPD patients, namely those with increased exacerbation risk plus higher blood eosinophil count (BEC), can benefit from ICS treatment. This review describes the components of inflammation modulated by ICS in COPD and the reasons for the variation in response to ICS between individuals. There are corticosteroid-insensitive inflammatory pathways in COPD, such as bacteria-induced macrophage interleukin-8 production and resultant neutrophil recruitment, but also corticosteroid-sensitive pathways including the reduction of type 2 markers and mast cell numbers. The review also describes the mechanisms whereby ICS can skew the lung microbiome, with reduced diversity and increased relative abundance, towards an excess of proteobacteria. BEC is a biomarker used to enable the selective use of ICS in COPD, but the clinical outcome in an individual is decided by a complex interacting network involving the microbiome and airway inflammation.

Asthma and Rhinitis Through the Lifespan of Nonpregnant Women.

Increasingly, clinical practice guidelines advocate a precision medicine-based approach to care for asthma. This focus requires knowledge of not only different asthma phenotypes and their associated biomarkers but also sex and gender differences through the lifespan. Evidence continues to build in favor of different lifetime prevalence, clinical presentations, responses to management, and long-term prognosis of asthma. Women transition through many biological and psychosocial phases in their lives, all of which may interact with, and influence, their health and well-being. Historically, explanations have focused on hormonal effects on asthma in reproductive life, but a greater understanding of mechanisms starting before birth and changing over a lifetime is now possible, with immunologic, inflammatory, and hormonal factors playing a role. This article describes the evidence for the differences in asthma and rhinitis between men and women at different stages of life, the potential underlying mechanisms that contribute to this, and the implications for management and research. Future research studies should systematically report sex differences in asthma so that this knowledge can be used to develop a personalized approach to care, to achieve best possible outcomes for all.

A review of evidence for pneumococcal vaccination in adults at increased risk of pneumococcal disease: risk group definitions and optimization of vaccination coverage in the United Kingdom.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcal disease (PD) significantly contributes to morbidity and mortality, carrying substantial economic and public health burden. This article is a targeted review of evidence for pneumococcal vaccination in the UK, the definitions of groups at particular risk of PD and vaccine effectiveness. AREAS COVERED: Relevant evidence focusing on UK data from surveillance systems, randomized controlled trials, observational studies and publicly available government documents is collated and reviewed. Selected global data are included where appropriate. EXPERT OPINION: National vaccination programs have reduced the incidence of vaccine-type PD, despite the rising prominence of non-vaccine serotypes in the UK. The introduction of higher-valency conjugate vaccines provides an opportunity to improve protection against PD for adults in risk groups. Several incentives are in place to encourage general practitioners to vaccinate risk groups, but uptake is low-suboptimal particularly among at-risk individuals. Wider awareness and understanding among the public and healthcare professionals may increase vaccination uptake and coverage. National strategies targeting organizational factors are urgently needed to achieve optimal access to vaccines. Finally, identifying new risk factors and approaches to risk assessment for PD are crucial to ensure those at risk of PD can benefit from pneumococcal vaccination.

Understanding the Clinical Implications of Individual Patient Characteristics and Treatment Choice on the Risk of Exacerbation in Asthma Patients with Moderate-Severe Symptoms.

INTRODUCTION: The assessment of future risk has become an important feature in the management of patients with asthma. However, the contribution of patient-specific characteristics and treatment choices to the risk of exacerbation is poorly understood. Here we evaluated the effect of interindividual baseline differences on the risk of exacerbation and treatment performance in patients receiving regular maintenance doses of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) or ICS/long-acting beta-agonists (LABA) combination therapy. METHODS: Exacerbations and changes to asthma symptoms 5-item Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ-5) were simulated over a 12-month period using a time-to-event and a longitudinal model developed from phase III/IV studies in patients with moderate-severe asthma (N = 16,282). Simulations were implemented to explore treatment performance across different scenarios, including randomised designs and real-world settings. Treatment options included regular dosing with ICS monotherapy [fluticasone propionate (FP)] and combination therapy [fluticasone propionate/salmeterol (FP/SAL) or budesonide/formoterol (BUD/FOR)]. Exacerbation rate was analysed using the log-rank test. The cumulative incidence of events was summarised stratified by treatment. RESULTS: Being a woman, smoker, having higher baseline ACQ-5 and body mass index (BMI) and lower forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) are associated with increased exacerbation risk (p < 0.01). This risk is bigger in winter because of the seasonal variation effect. Across the different scenarios, the use of FP/SAL resulted in a 10% lower annual incidence of exacerbations relative to FP or regular dosing BUD/FOR, independently of baseline characteristics. Similar differences in the annual incidence of exacerbations were also observed between treatments in obese patients (BMI ≥ 25-35 kg/m2) (p < 0.01) and in patients who do not achieve symptom control on FP monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Individual baseline characteristics and treatment choices affect future risk. Achieving comparable levels of symptom control whilst on treatment does not imply comparable risk reduction, as shown by the lower exacerbation rates in FP/SAL vs. BUD/FOR-treated patients. These factors should be considered as a basis for personalised clinical management of patients with moderate-severe asthma.

The goal of this project was to demonstrate that individual baseline characteristics can affect the risk of exacerbation as well as the overall treatment response in patients receiving regular maintenance doses of inhaled corticosteroids, given as monotherapy or in combination with long-acting beta-agonists. Using computer simulations based on a drug­disease model previously developed from a large pool of patients with moderate­severe asthma symptoms (N = 16,282), we describe how demographic and clinical baseline patient characteristics at the time of treatment start correlate with the risk of exacerbation. Our results indicate that poor symptom control, limited lung function, obesity, smoking and sex are associated with significant increase in the incidence of asthma attacks. Such an effect is augmented in winter because of the contribution of seasonal variation. This analysis also allowed us to assess how different treatments modify or reduce the annual incidence of moderate to severe attacks. In addition, simulated scenarios showed that combination therapy with fluticasone propionate/salmeterol results in 10% fewer asthma attacks relative to budesonide/formoterol combination therapy. Such a difference may be associated with corticosteroid-specific properties, which vary between inhaled corticosteroids. Consequently, even though comparable level of immediate relief and symptom control may be achieved whilst on treatment, these effects do not imply the same long-term reduction in the risk of exacerbation. These factors should be considered as a basis for personalised clinical management of patients with moderate­severe asthma.